Eight years down the line, the situation across the globe has seen drastic changes. Yet the course of action seems eerily familiar as former President Donald Trump readies himself for a trip to the Middle East. In the year 2017, his choice of Saudi Arabia as the maiden voyage destination of his presidency underscored the urgency of thwarting Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weaponry. Fast forward to the present, the countdown to Iran’s accomplishment of its nefarious objective is nearing the final few ticks.
While the immediate challenge necessitates the cessation of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the larger issue is the avoidance of an extensive war. At this critical juncture, Trump must take a page from his own history book of ‘peace through power’, and disregard the voices of isolationism within his administration, as he had done in the past
In the past, Trump’s foreign policy has undoubtedly catalyzed a seismic shift in the Middle Eastern region. It set the foundation for the Abraham Accords, fostering an unprecedented level of alliance between Israel and an expanding set of Arab nations. However, the most significant decision was his successful move to withdraw from the unsatisfactory nuclear agreement struck under former president Barack Obama. A string of sanctions subsequently emplaced on Iran virtually paralyzed its economy.
Moreover, the elimination of the notorious Iranian terror maestro, Qasem Soleimani, crafted an ambiance of trepidation towards the United States’ power in the minds of the Iranian regime. As a result, during the first term of Donald Trump’s presidency, the Iranian nuclear advancement saw no progress due to a drought in financial resources.
Regardless of these events, desires to revert back to the failed Obama-era agreement led to a systematic dilution of the mounting pressure on Iran, over the subsequent four years. In the absence of any significant retaliation, Iran accelerated its nuclear program. By the end of Trump’s term, Iran was on the cusp of possessing a nuclear bomb, allegedly just a week away.
In the face of these alarming developments, a window of opportunity opens for Trump to resolve the nuclear crisis spurred by Iran once and for all. It’s essential to note that although the nuclear capabilities of Iran have strengthened, their negotiating stance is arguably weaker.
While Iran concentrated its efforts on enriching uranium, Israel put Iran on the defensive. The assaults on Iran’s proxy terror group Hezbollah and destruction of its main air defenses compelled Iran to struggle for its survival. Thanks to Israel, the Iranian regime is now more susceptible to a strategic military assault on its nuclear infrastructure, as well as the reinitiation of debilitating economic sanctions.
Former President Trump has displayed a steadfast commitment to stop Iran’s progress in its tracks. This was most evident when he resurrected his ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran and expressed the desire for complete dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program. This is the stern warning needed by authoritarian leaders that espouse the elimination of Israel and America.
However, the isolationist tendency within his administration stands as an obstacle to Trump’s steadfast stance. These voices are encouraging a course of action reminiscent of the past, pushing for a negotiation deal with Iran. This approach is not only reckless but also devoid of critical understanding of Iran’s past behavior.
The track record of Iran violating weak agreements is quite evident as it continued ballistic missile launches, arms smuggling, and advanced missile technology deployment, in stark violation of UN Resolution 2331. Further complicating matters, Iran has allowed external observation of its nuclear program only after adequate time has passed to cover up traces of deceit.
Therefore, the optimal containment strategy involves the imposition of severe repercussions. The ayatollahs need to be kept on their toes with the fear of a sudden hard-hitting strike on their nuclear program by the US and its allies.
Opponents of this tactic argue that the imminent threat of an attack could ignite a war. However, the likelihood of a war significantly reduces with the presence of such a threat. If Iran were to develop nuclear weapons, the Middle East would be thrown into a chaotic arms race, with Israel being the primary target of the defiant Iranian regime.
Fear of a pre-emptive attack serves as the best deterrent for Iran to abstain from its pursuit of a nuclear weapon. This could potentially lead to the voluntary disarming of Iran’s nuclear program, thereby protecting American lives. Trump expressed this goal in no uncertain terms. What Trump needs now is a solid plan, which he should declare publicly during his Middle Eastern trip.
Firstly, he should subject Iran to unprecedented sanctions, particularly targeting those procuring Iranian oil, a vital lifeline for Iran’s economy. Secondly, a unified front against Iranian aggression needs to be presented by gathering our regional allies and partners. Lastly, he must unequivocally state that the US will support a military strike against Iran’s nuclear program, should Iran refuse to terminate it. Therefore, peace through power has been palpably effective during the past four years, especially since Trump’s initial trip to the Middle East in 2017. The stakes are now higher; however, the pathway to success remains unchanged. This trip may just herald the end of Iran’s nuclear dreams.