Democrats Losing Ground As Midterm Poll Shows Support Far Below 2018 Levels

Democrats hold only a narrow advantage over Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm elections, according to a new poll that raises doubts about predictions of an overwhelming blue-wave victory.

The Washington Post-Ipsos survey found that 48% of registered voters currently support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, compared with 45% who favor the Republican candidate. That three-point margin is substantially smaller than the advantage Democrats held before their successful 2018 midterm campaign.

Democrats led Republicans by roughly 10 points at a similar stage of the 2018 election cycle. The party went on to gain 41 House seats that year, capturing control of the chamber during President Trump’s first term.

The latest numbers suggest Democrats are far from matching that level of support. Their advantage has also narrowed as Republicans gain ground, despite months of predictions from liberal commentators that the GOP was headed for a crushing defeat.

Former Biden administration official Neera Tanden warned Democrats against becoming overconfident. She said anyone assuming November would produce a landslide should reconsider after seeing the latest results.

Democrats performed better among voters who said they were certain to participate in the election, holding a 10-point advantage in that group. However, Republicans are expected to benefit from stronger fundraising, an energized conservative base and voter concerns about the direction of the Democratic Party.

The poll comes as Democrats remain divided between establishment figures and far-left activists pushing increasingly radical policies. Republicans have sought to make those divisions a central campaign issue by warning voters that Democratic control would empower socialists and reverse President Trump’s agenda.

The survey questioned 2,092 registered voters from July 8 through July 13 and carried a margin of error of approximately 2.2 percentage points. With several months remaining before Election Day, the results show the battle for Congress remains highly competitive.